Notes #13/2024: Intermediate targets in municipal energy transition policies
Intermediate targets in municipal energy transition policies
In my role as a managing consultant for the energy transition in the public sector, I frequently speak with aldermen and other policymakers from local and regional governments. These discussions often revolve around climate and energy goals and the municipality's progress toward achieving them. Increasingly, however, questions arise about the value and necessity of intermediate targets.
Municipalities have ambitious goals. These objectives, however, almost always fall outside the current legislative term. For example, municipal elections in The Netherlands are scheduled for 2026, and elections for water boards and provinces will take place in 2027. Climate goals, with some local variation in ambition, generally focus on 2030 and 2050. Consequently, city-councils are increasingly recognizing the need for concrete intermediate targets to monitor and adjust interim progress. Aldermen also see intermediate targets as a way to showcase results during election campaigns. Additionally, municipal councils are requesting such targets to effectively perform their oversight duties.
Formulating intermediate targets can be a useful step in translating grand ambitions into achievable milestones. However, the choice to establish intermediate targets is not straightforward and should not be taken lightly in a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Some key considerations:
Technical Perspective: The transition to climate neutrality does not follow a linear reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from current levels to net zero by 2050. Policy development and implementation take time, meaning changes occur slowly at first and may accelerate later. Over the long term, the pace of the transition will slow as the remaining challenges become increasingly complex. The exact shape of this curve is difficult to predict and varies by municipality and topic. This makes it nearly impossible to establish realistic and well-founded intermediate targets.
Management Perspective: Steering toward long-term goals requires knowledge and determination, as well as adaptive and learning-based management. Short-term goals, on the other hand, demand stricter and more rigid steering, with the risk that "what gets measured gets managed" turns into "we only manage what we can measure." This can undermine the broader ambitions of the energy transition. (See also notes #6/2024 on measuring circularity)
Strategic Perspective: Policymakers want to demonstrate results. However, short-term goals often lead to an (unconscious) focus on “low-hanging fruit.” While significant short-term achievements may appear impressive, they can complicate small but critical subsequent steps in the long term. Moreover, integral considerations are often overlooked, which can cause the energy transition to undermine equity or economic development instead of contributing to them. The transition is a structural process, not a collection of isolated actions.
I do not advice aldermen to abandon intermediate targets entirely, assuming that option is even available. Instead, I encourage them to develop well-considered intermediate targets, supported by thorough and systematic monitoring and a careful selection of relevant KPIs. Most importantly, I advise them to craft and communicate a compelling narrative about the transition—highlighting its context, content, and inherent uncertainties—while showing how the intermediate targets fit within but are not, and should not, be the main characters in this story.