Ruben Zondervan

Notes #4/2024: Not the lack of ambition, but unpredictability and populism are the problems.

Notes are just that: Short, informal messages, or brief records of points or ideas written down. The views and opinions expressed in my notes do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of my employer or clients.

On the (no longer) likely new government in The Netherlands

The Netherlands held elections for a new parliament on 22 November 2023. Due to the fact that there has been a bit of a political shake-up, with 16 political parties gaining seats - resulting in quite a fragmented political landscape - and that the intricate process of negotiating a new governing coalition is slow, no new government is in place yet. It might take months before there is a new government. There is much to say about these negotiations (some weird and embarrassing talks about basic rights and the constitution) or the election results as such. I will refrain from that, other than what I wrote on Mastodon immediately after the election: ā€œPlay Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizesā€.

Yesterday, the negotiations imploded, so things will take even longer now. With that, the draft text I had ready for this issue of notes became void. The point I wanted to make about the policy positions of the negotiating political parties still holds true: We do not need more ambitions and goals, but execution capabilities and a bit of stability.

Until yesterday, three political parties (PVV, NSC, and BBB) were negotiating the outlines of a governing coalition. A fourth party (VVD) did not want to join (yet) but was willing to support this potential coalition. This constellation would certainly have resulted in a government much less ambitious on sustainability, climate change, and the energy transition. (See for a detailed analysis of their election manifests the overview of positions by the Dutch Association for Renewable Energy and in summary at the bottom of this text). My - now outdated - prediction was that this would lead to an energy agenda that on paper keeps all the ambitions in place, puts (too) many of its eggs in the nuclear basket, and otherwise just bickers about irrelevant details on other issues.

The danger of this potential new government was not so much their climate skepticism (BBB), their anti-intellectualism (PVV), their opaque equivocality (NSC), or their nihilism (VVD) that could and likely will slow down the transition. The danger was that their approach to the energy transition would cause unpredictable policies. The energy transition, like any other transition, is already inherently uncertain and at times chaotic. In the long term, a stable policy context and direction are more important for and more determining of the speed of the energy transition than four years of a government with a high or a low ambition. We can deal with climate change denialism or a modest ā€˜feasible and affordableā€™ approach to the energy transition. However, stupidity and populism are significant risks to the transition as such, and drivers of unpredictable and uninformed policies.

The negotiations for a new governing coalition collapsed yesterday. A new attempt starts today. A new government might still take a while. In the meantime, the outgoing government has to deal with a new parliamentary majority and, as a consequence of that, delays, distractions, and dumb decisions regarding energy transition policies. The era of unpredictability might have begun.

In other news

Interesting new tool: The EU City Calculator, an open-source tool providing cities with a sectoral outlook on the type and ambition of measures they can take to achieve a transition towards climate neutrality. Unfortunately, currently there are just a dozen cities included.

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